A new study suggests American students are lagging behind the international average. Catching up could be worth America's while.
Higher test scores could translate into a more skilled workforce, according to a new study.
The U.S. economy stands to gain $10 trillion by 2050 if American children’s math and science test scores improve to match those from Canada, according to a study issued this week by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
The study is based on math and science test scores from the 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment exam, which tested the academic ability of 15-year-old students around the world.
Among the 34 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that took the 2012 PISA exam, America's scores rank 24th. South Korea, Japan, Finland, Estonia and Switzerland round out the top five, while Canada ranks 7th.
The study largely attributes the gap between the U.S. and its northern neighbor to a growing education gap within the U.S. itself.
“In general, there are large gaps in the educational outcomes among children from families with lower and higher socioeconomic status,” Robert Lynch, Washington College economics professor and visiting fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, said in the report. “These gaps contribute to subsequent economic inequality, with the relatively poor performance of children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds reducing U.S. economic growth. Thus, closing income or class-based educational gaps would promote faster and more widely shared economic growth.”
The study cites historical data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggesting the bottom 10 percent of American households only saw mean household incomes increase by about 15 percent between 1967 and 2013, with respect to inflation. The top 10 percent, meanwhile, saw mean household incomes increase 59 percent over the same period.
Investments in education are one proposed solution to closing this gap. The authors of the study reason a more educated youth population will develop more desirable skill sets for the working world and ultimately foster a more skilled labor force.
“The theoretical basis for the relationship between additional schooling and economic growth is straightforward,” Lynch writes in the report. “Educational attainment increases human capital, resulting in the enhanced productivity of a nation’s workforce, increases the rate of technological innovation, and facilitates the diffusion and adoption of new production techniques, all of which help boost economic growth.”
By just improving American children’s average PISA test score to meet the average score of all 34 OECD member nations, the study estimates the U.S. would expand its GDP $2.5 trillion by 2050 – 1.7 percent higher than it would be without such an improvement. That would in turn translate to an increased $902 billion in government revenues. By 2075, the U.S. economy would be worth $14 trillion more than if the status quo remains unchanged, netting the government an additional $5.2 trillion, according to the report.
If U.S. children matched Canada’s average science and math scores, U.S. GDP would balloon an extra $10 trillion by 2050 and $57.4 trillion by 2075, bringing increased government revenues of $3.6 trillion and $21.5 trillion, respectively.
And if the U.S. improved its test scores to match the average academic performance of its top 25 percent most advantaged students – thereby eliminating a now sizable socioeconomic education gap – the U.S. economy would gain an extra $14.7 trillion by 2050 and $86.5 trillion by 2075. The government would rake in an additional $5.3 trillion by 2050 and $32.4 trillion by 2075.
“If investments were made that raised U.S. math and science scores up to the OECD average, then the U.S. would experience $72 billion more in GDP growth each and every year for the next 35 years,” according to the report. “Thus, we should be willing to invest up to $72 billion per year for the next 35 years to raise U.S. achievement scores up to the OECD average.”
According to the U.S. News/Raytheon STEM Index, U.S. results on the PISA exam improved steadily from 2006 to 2009, but have since been on the decline and now are just slightly lower than they were in 2000, the base year for the Index. The report from the Washington Center for Equitable Growth notes that investments made in early stages of a child’s education pay back the biggest dividends in terms of development.
President Barack Obama’s 2016 federal budget proposal released Monday outlines an $80 billion child care overhaul plan that sets aside $750 million to provide preschool access to four-year-olds from low- and moderate-income households. National Head Start programs’ funding also increased by $1.5 billion in the proposed budget.
But perhaps the most widely-discussed tenet of the president’s proposal is the free community college program that will cost the government an estimated $60 billion over the next 10 years.
Though the president’s budget does allot sizable funds to education and child development services, it has been largely criticized by several members of the GOP-controlled Congress. It is generally considered highly unlikely the document will pass through Congress in its entirety.
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